The national headline is that US housing continues to soften across the board. But here’s the counterintuitive part most buyers get wrong: spring is not the best time to buy a house in Milwaukee. August through October is — every single year, without exception in the decade-plus I’ve been tracking this. This month I’ll show you the seasonality data behind that, how the softening national market is (and isn’t) reaching Milwaukee, the labor-market headlines from last week, and a quick word on the electricity bills blowing up your social feed.
Zillow says Milwaukee -1%. I don’t buy it.
Zillow’s new 12-month forecast calls for US prices to soften about 1%, and Milwaukee specifically at -1%. Worth noting they’ve been walking that back all year — from -1.9% in spring, to -1.4%, now -1%, getting gradually less pessimistic. Their national map shows the last 12 months hit Florida hardest (nearly -12% on the coast) and Texas, with softening across the Sun Belt and up the West Coast, while the Midwest and Northeast held strong. The new forecast has more of the Midwest and Northeast turning orange and red.
I’m skeptical, and so are a lot of analysts who question how well Zillow captures local supply-and-demand. A -1% is basically flatlining, but based on what I see in the actual Milwaukee supply-demand picture, I’d be surprised to see values decline here at all. Here’s why.
The July snapshot: two markets in one
Inventory was up 30.5% year-over-year to 3,944 units. That sounds like a demand problem — but zoom out: pre-COVID we ran about 2,800, and in July 2015 it was over 6,000. A normal market is double where we are. Supply is still historically low.
What’s remarkable is how few transactions are happening: 1,190 closings, slightly down and well below a typical summer month. Blame consumer confidence and mortgage rates — more on both below. Yet velocity stays high, with a 5-day median and plenty of deals closing in 2–3 days. July’s median sold price rose just under 3%, one of the lowest readings in a long time, down from over 7% the prior month. But zoom out: Milwaukee prices have nearly doubled over the last 10 years. Year-to-date we’re up 6.1% — down from the 7–8% we’d been running, dragged by that soft July number.
July was softer across every price segment — more sentiment than fundamentals, with participants guarded. The result is a genuine split: homes either move in days or sit. Hot listings still sell competitively; second- and third-tier listings (needs work, overpriced, or both) now have real negotiating room we haven’t seen in months. And cash is surging — one in five offers is now cash, roughly double the historical rate. Two drivers: investors skeptical of stock-market upside at current P/E ratios (and wary of the traditionally volatile August–September stretch) are moving money into real estate; and buyers are using cash or quasi-cash structures purely to win in still-competitive North Shore, Mequon, Cedarburg, Wauwatosa, and Brookfield. There are several ways to make a financed offer look like cash — a strategy we use often for our buyers.
The seasonality edge: why fall wins
The single most valuable thing in this update: Milwaukee has an extremely reliable price seasonality. Across ten years of median-price data, the pattern repeats — price peaks in June, bottoms in December/January. The best time to buy is on that downward leg, and that’s August through October.
Here’s the logic. As a buyer you want more inventory, less competition, and good-quality inventory — and all three peak in fall. Total inventory is at its yearly high in August, September, and October (true even back in 2019). Competitiveness declines into year-end as the sale-to-list ratio drifts down. So why not just wait for December and January, when prices bottom? Because by then, what’s left is largely leftover stuff nobody wanted — new listings dry up after October, and there’s little worth buying. Investors can find deals, but the good selection runs out by late October. Fall is the sweet spot: maximum choice, easing competition, before quality inventory disappears.
Rates, and a note on the 15-year
Mortgage rates are still under 7%, stuck in the sideways trend that’s held since 2022 — a 6.72% average on the 30-year fixed. The gap to the 15-year is widening, which is worth a look. On a $400K purchase with 10% down, the 30-year runs about $2,918/month PITI; the 15-year is roughly $6,700/year more but pays off in half the time at a lower rate. Alternatively, take the 30-year for payment flexibility and add $600–700 monthly to hit a similar payoff — the tradeoff is the slightly higher rate. Which fits depends on your situation and risk tolerance; it’s part of the conversation we have with every buyer.
The economy: labor cooling, not collapsing
Last week’s job headlines matter, because worried people don’t move. But zoom out. Overlaying unemployed persons against open jobs back to 2008 tells the real story: in 2008 we had ~15 million people chasing ~3 million jobs — brutal. Setting COVID aside as an external shock, we then entered a genuine labor shortage in 2022–23, more open jobs than unemployed people. Now those two lines are converging again — but the sky isn’t falling. No strongly negative signal from the labor market yet.
Inflation ticked up to 2.7% in July. Compared to the runaway inflation of a couple years ago, that’s not too worrisome, but it’s on the Fed’s radar and it feeds consumer confidence — my last chart. Present-situation confidence is still okay; it’s future expectations that are the problem, sitting below the Conference Board’s 80 mark that historically signals recession. It cratered below 60 in spring, recovered, but is still under 80. That, more than anything, is why so few people are buying or selling — they’re waiting to see how the economy shakes out before making a life move.
One thing to keep an eye on but not panic over: electricity. The viral “my bill doubled” videos are overstated, but summer wholesale electricity prices did jump ~22% in some states, hitting Illinois hard. Wisconsin is better protected — We Energies needs approval to raise rates, and the approved increases are 9.29% this year and 8.58% next, with similar figures for natural gas. Not a real-estate factor today, but worth watching.
What to expect
We’re in the summer market — less competitive, but make no mistake, still a seller’s market and a seller’s advantage, not a buyer’s market. Inventory will rise slightly; this is the most choice you’ll get all year. Mortgage rates likely flat, holding between 6.5% and 7%. Best time to buy, every year, is right now through October — if you know, you know. Selling isn’t bad either, especially targeting back-to-school; and if you’re buying and selling at once, it’s largely a wash since you’re transacting in the same market — but the strategy (buy first, sell first, and four other variations) matters enormously and is different for everyone.
If you want to work out which strategy fits your situation, go to onpointrg.com and click “Book a Call with Marcus” — pick a time that works and I’ll see you on Zoom. Or download our free New Home Buyers Guide on the site: 24-plus pages walking through the Milwaukee buying process step by step, including what’s specific to our market